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Does Cap and Trade beat carbon tax for reducing emissions?

The two main competing strategies for lowering carbon emissions are a Cap and Trade system and a carbon tax. A Cap and Trade system works by having a government issue a capped number of carbon credits to companies, where the more polluting companies that exceed their quota must buy carbon credits from the less polluting companies that sell their unused quota. Some of its critics suggest that carbon taxation is simpler and that a Cap and Trade system can be gamed and subverted.

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Experts and Influencers

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Agree
Experts In Economics


Paul Krugman    Nobel Laureate in Economics
Agree
We have a real chance of getting a serious cap and trade program in place within a year or two. We have no chance of getting a carbon tax for the foreseeable future. It’s just destructive to denounce the program we can actually get — a program that won’t be perfect, won’t be enough, but can be made increasingly effective over time — in favor of something that can’t possibly happen in time to avoid disaster.
07 Dec 2009    Source


Experts In Politics


Barack Obama    United States President
Agree
I think cap-and-trade system makes more sense. That’s why I proposed it because you can be very specific in terms of how we’re going to reduce the greenhouse gases by a particular level. ... [With] a carbon tax the cost will be passed onto consumers and that won’t happen with a cap-and-trade.
06 Jan 2008    Source


Experts In Science


Joseph Romm    Physicist, Environmentalist, Writer
Agree
A carbon tax, particularly one capable of deep emissions reductions quickly, is a political dead end. Neither the Obama administration nor senior members of Congress support a carbon tax. Quite the reverse. Obama (and Clinton and Biden) campaigned on a cap-and-trade system. That is the only game in town. Now you can choose to play checkers when everyone else is playing chess, but don’t be surprised if everyone else starts to criticize or ignore you.
05 May 2009    Source


Neutral
Experts In Politics


Al Gore    Environmentalist, Former U.S. Vice President
Neutral
For more than 20 years, I have supported a CO2 tax offset by an equal reduction in taxes elsewhere. However, a cap-and-trade system is also essential and actually offers a better prospect for a global agreement, in part because it is difficult to imagine a harmonized global CO2 tax. Moreover, I have long recognized that our political system has special difficulty in considering a CO2 tax even if it is revenue neutral.
06 Mar 2009    Source


Disagree
Experts In Economics


Joseph Stiglitz    Nobel Laureate in Economics, Ex World Bank Chief Economist
Disagree
Of course, polluting industries like the cap-and-trade system. While it provides them an incentive not to pollute, emission allowances offset much of what they would have to pay under a tax system. Some firms can even make money off the deal. Moreover, Europe has grown used to the concept of cap-and-trade, and many are loathe to try an alternative. Yet, no one has proposed an acceptable set of principles for assigning emission rights.
01 Jan 2007    Source


The Economist    Politics and Business Magazine
Disagree
With a cap-and-trade regime, where annual emissions are strictly capped, variation in these costs implies significant price volatility. It also forces the market to cut emissions at times when emission reduction costs are high. A carbon tax, on the other hand, would allow firms to cut emissions most when doing so is cheapest. This is a strong argument in favour of the overall efficiency advantages of a carbon tax. But there's more to the story than that. ...
15 Feb 2008    Source


Robin Hanson    Economics Professor
Disagree
A carbon tax would make price blame clearer, so [Democrats] are going with tradable permits, which also lets them play more favorites with who gets permits. Permits also make it harder to notice if they actually cut carbon, vs. preserving business as usual.
16 Jun 2009    Source


Experts In Science


James Hansen    Climatology Professor
Disagree
...at the heart of [Obama's carbon emission reduction] plan is cap and trade, a market-based approach that has been widely praised but does little to slow global warming or reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. It merely allows polluters and Wall Street traders to fleece the public out of billions of dollars.
07 Dec 2009    Source


Experts In Business


Rex Tillerson    CEO of Exxon Mobil
Disagree
My greatest concern is that policy makers will attempt to mandate or ordain solutions that are doomed to fail. ... A carbon tax would be a more direct and transparent approach.
09 Jan 2009    Source



Comments

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1 Point      the27th      26 May 2010      Stance on Question: Mostly Disagree
Of course, they're theoretically identical.
The carbon tax is much simpler to administer, though, and less vulnerable to corruption. (See the most recent cap-and-trade bill -- it was a porky monstrosity.) However, it's less politically feasible than cap-and-trade. So some would say we should do what we can, however imperfect. I don't think so.

Myself, I think we haven't done the homework on climate change yet, and we don't know if aggressive carbon pricing is good for the US or the world in cost-benefit terms. A less-than-ideal pricing scheme, which is what we'd probably get -- not aggressive enough, too soft on industry -- would be a waste of money with negligible effect on emissions. I really wouldn't touch it.

If we have public money to spend on climate change, we should spend it on clean energy R&D, and infrastructure and humanitarian aid to cope with the effects of climate change. We don't have the political will to drastically reduce consumption in the US; we don't have the power to make other countries drastically reduce consumption; and we don't have enough evidence to believe that such aggressive efforts are a net economic gain.


0 Points      Benja      27 May 2010      Stance on Question: Mostly Disagree
I agreed with everything you said, but I'd add that some economists have actually projected the economic gain/loss from reducing emissions, and it appears to be a net economic loss (see Bjorn Lomborg's opinion on the issue of whether substantially reducing emissions is worthwhile). I'm with Bill Gates that the winning strategy is to invest in clean energy R&D in the form of 4th generation nuclear power plants, possibly fueled with thorium.


1 Point      the27th      27 May 2010      Stance on Question: Mostly Disagree
Well, I've seen several cost-benefit analyses -- Nordhaus did one, Stern did one, the Pew Institute did one -- and they projected a net benefit for emissions reduction. Nordhaus and Stern were looking globally; Pew was looking at the US, on a much shorter time scale with more specificity. Of course if you look at the very long term you run into philosophical complications with discounting.

Pew found that reducing emissions by the UN's recommended amount would be, barely, a net economic gain for the US, but that some states would take losses. It's in Ohio's best interest to just let climate change proceed; it's in Louisiana's best interest to halt climate change. (I note ruefully that the states with the most to lose from climate change -- coastal and desert states, mostly -- are not necessarily more likely to have representatives who voted for cap-and-trade. It may be too much to hope that politicians actually think about cost-benefit.)




0 Points      JGWeissman      27 Mar 2010      Stance on Question: Mostly Agree
The principal of figuring out how much pollution the earth can handle, and issuing tradeable licenses to pollute up to that amount, is sound. This beats a carbon tax, which imposes the same linear cost of pollution past the point the earth can no longer absorb it, while a market system will raise the price asymptotically as the resource of allowable pollution becomes scarce, so that a balance must be found. I have issues, however, with the government arbitrarily deciding who gets the licenses initially. I would prefer to split them amongst the earth's entire human population, allow those who pollute less end up being compensated by those who pollute more, and therefor have to buy the licenses.