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Will the 2007 IPCC computer models make accurate predictions?

Topics:  Global Warming   Science   Climatology  

 

AnswerExpertQuote (click to sort by date)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeScientific Panel formed by United Nations
There is considerable confidence that climate models provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly at continental scales and above. This confidence comes from the foundation of the models in accepted physical principles and from their ability to reproduce observed features of current climate and past climate changes. ... models have consistently provided a robust and unambiguous picture of significant climate warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases.     
01 Jan 2008   Source
Dr. Donald DuBoisComputer Modeller (P.H.D. in Philosophy of Science)
[Models can be misleading, because] underlying assumptions can completely predetermine the results of the model. If the major climate models that are having a major impact on public policy were documented and put in the public domain, other qualified professionals around the world would be interested in looking into the validity of these models. Right now, climate science is a black box that is highly questionable with unstated assumptions and model inputs.     
17 May 2007   Source
Andrew J. MonaghanResearcher, Polar Meteorology Group, Ohio State Uni.
This paper provides further evidence that the multi-decadal global climate models are significantly overstating the water vapor input into the atmosphere, and thus are not providing quantitatively realistic estimates of how the climate system responds to the increase in atmospheric well mixed greenhouse gases in terms of the water vapor feedback. This water vapor feedback is required in order to achieve the amount of warming from radiative forcing projected in the 2007 IPCC report.     
01 Jan 2008   Source
World Climate ReportClimate Change Skeptic Blog by Dr. Patrick J. Michaels
Global warming theory and GCMs (General Circulation Models) are found to be fundamentally flawed. A significant, if not dominant portion of temperature increases in recent decades has resulted from local surface heating processes due to land use change, urbanization, and even anthropogenic greenhouse gases.     
17 Mar 2004   Source
Dr. Francis MassenProfessor, Physics Laboratory, Lycée Technique Hôtelier
The SPM [IPCC Summary for Policymakers] conceals that the methane concentration in the atmosphere has been stable for seven years (and nobody knows exactly why); not one climatic model foresaw this.     
01 Feb 2007   Source
Dr. Denis G. RancourtPhysics Prof., Environmental Science Researcher, Ottawa Uni.
There is of course much more wrong with state-of-the-art global circulation models (climate models) than the assumption and implementation of CO2-H2O feedback. Although these models are among the most elaborate predictive models of complex non-linear phenomena, they are nonetheless sweeping oversimplifications of the global climate system and its mechanistic intricacies.     
27 Feb 2007   Source
Robert M. CarterMarine Geophysical Professor
With the complete discrediting of the ‘hockey stick’ curve of recent temperature change (McIntyre and McKitrick, 2003, 2005; Wegman, Scott and Said, 2006) that was the icon of their report, the IPCC case for dangerous human-caused warming now rests only on ambiguous anecdotal evidence, unvalidated computer models and misleading attribution studies (IPCC, 2007).     
02 May 2007   Source