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Have climate models made good predictions so far?

Faith in any scientific theory is predicated on its predictive power. This makes validating climate models difficult: it may take years or even decades to conclusively match a model with observations. For this reason, both sides of the debate to some extent acknowledge that time will be the ultimate judge. However, many are already drawing conclusions from the IPCC's predictions made so far.

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Experts and Influencers

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Agree
Experts In Climatology


James Hansen    Climatology Professor
Mostly Agree
The global mean surface temperature increase (land and ocean combined) in both the NASA GISS data set and the Hadley Centre/ Climatic Research Unit data set is 0.33°C for the 16 years since 1990, which is in the upper part of the range projected by the IPCC. Given the relatively short 16-year time period considered, it will be difficult to establish the reasons for this relatively rapid warming, although there are only a few likely possibilities.
04 May 2007    Source


Gavin Schmidt    Climatologist
Mostly Agree
It takes about 20 years to evaluate because there is so much unforced variability in the system — the chaotic component of the climate system — that is not predictable beyond two weeks, even theoretically. ... [Our predictions from 20 years ago] have been more or less validated, given both the imperfections we had at the time and the uncertainty in how we thought things would change in the future. So there is a track record that shows that these models are realistic.
29 Jun 2009    Source


Experts In Science


John Holdren    Barack Obama's Science Advisor
Agree
We are not talking anymore about what climate models say might happen in the future. We are experiencing dangerous human disruption of the global climate and we're going to experience more.
31 Aug 2006    Source


Disagree
Experts In Climatology


Patrick Michaels    Climatology Professor
Disagree
When Antarctica was cooling, some climate scientists said that was consistent with computer models for global warming. When a new study, such as Steig's, says it's warming, well that's just fine with the models, too. That's right: people glibly relate both warming and cooling of the frigid continent to human-induced climate change.
12 Feb 2009    Source


Experts In Science


S. Fred Singer    Head of NIPCC, Astrophysics Professor
Disagree
This mismatch of observed and calculated fingerprints clearly falsifies the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). We must conclude therefore that anthropogenic GH gases can contribute only in a minor way to the current warming, which is mainly of natural origin.
02 Mar 2008    Source


Encyclopedia


Conservapedia    Christian Encyclopedia
Disagree
Predictions made by climate models publicized by the IPCC have not come to pass, and the climate has shown a mild cooling over the last 15 years.
20 Jun 2010    Source



Comments

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0 Points      Benja      29 Jun 2010      General Comment
I recommend the link to Gavin's quote to nerds wanting to get an insight into what climate modelers actually do.